Covid-19 Worst Case Scenario Kenya

If there is one book that I read 5 times and will read it again 20 more times is one by Dale Carnegie - How to stop worrying and start living. My take from this book was to always conquer worry by examining the facts, looking for the worst-case scenario and embracing yourself to accept the worst case.

In the midst of this corona pandemic, there is a story that the data is telling and most importantly, the trends are revealing important insights that vary from country to country.

 I have spent lots of time just staring at these figures and something looks amiss with the trends or the growth patterns. I always want to understand any patterns (stocks, tech-trends, forex .etc.) from the data

Redemption Time 

My perspective is that we are in a good place as a country and have a good opportunity to take control of the situation as of today or the beginning of this month. 

While everyone seems to be predicting doom or catastrophe of biblical proportion, I think we are not beyond redemption, at least looking at the data.

 I have looked at the current trends for the worst-hit countries against Kenya and we have a very A good opportunity to redeem the situation. https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
 

Country	First Case Reported	Number of Days	31st March 2020(Today) Cases	Average Growth Rate Cases /Day	Days Ahead of Kenya
US	Jan /20/2020	71 Days	163,844	2308/day	52 Days
Italy	Jan /20/2020	62 Days	101,739	1641/day	43 Days
Kenya	Mar /12/2020	19 Days	50	3/day	NIL

The only way this data can stand the test of time is IF WE ARE CARRYING OUT ENOUGH TESTS else the results will be completely inverse.

30 Days from Today with Same Growth Rates 

If cases grow at the same rate we currently have (average of 3 cases per day)

(Number of days X growth rate) + Existing Cases

Kenya Growth Trend   

(30 X 3) + 50 = 140 cases

Italy Growth Trend Applied to Kenya

(30 x 1641) + 50 = 49,280 Cases

US Growth Trend Applied to Kenya

(30 x 2304)+50 = 69,170 cases

Every country has unique dynamics that influence the spread and what has been said to be the bad trend for African countries is the sheer ignorance, poor living conditions and a lack of resources to combat the pandemic.

Somewhat I feel like the ‘gods’ will spare us the wrath of this pandemic or at least we can take immediate interventions that will make a big impact on the growth trends.

Worst Case Scenario

I think maybe due to limited resources, the worst-case  scenario can be a prolonged outbreak since there is lack of enough testing in the long run.  This means we will have to adapt to the current way of working, socializing and living for a long time, until such a time we are sure.

At this time, I think it would be a better idea to invest more in testing kits than food vouchers for the simple reason; we will be just postponing the disaster even with days of lockdown.  

Testing should go hand in hand with other measures so that we can have the integrity of the current data. (The more people we test the more we know the extent of the spread)